It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A reversion to average may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
