A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
